Journal of Chemical and Pharmaceutical Research (ISSN : 0975-7384)

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Original Articles: 2014 Vol: 6 Issue: 7

The application research of ARMA forecasting model in prediction of medals and ranking for 2016 Olympic Games

Abstract

The medal number and ranking of previous Olympic Ga me is the focus of people’s attention. By studying the time series method, this paper applies it in predicting the number of medals. It respectively predicts the medal numbers of China, the U.S. and Russia, arrives at the medal nu mber and ranking of China in the 2016 Olympic, obta ins that China will respectively win 40 gold medals, 25 silv er medals and 27 bronze medals with a total of 92 m edals at the 2016 Olympic Games by using the weighted moving ave rage method, uses autoregressive ( ) AR model, moving average ( ) AM model and autoregressive average ARMA model to res pectively predict the medal condition of American and Russian in the 2016 Olympics, uses SAS software to test the stationary of the data, tests the autocorrelation coefficient model, and ultimately d etermines the predicted and estimated value. It is predicted that U.S. will get 44 gold medals, 36 silver medals and 23 bronze medals, a total of 103 medals; Russia wil l get 32 gold medals, 36 silver medals and 23 bronze medals, a to tal of 91 medals; thus China will be the second.

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