A reasonable coal mine safety control model is very important for coal mine safety management. In this paper, a calculation model of coal mine safety management is researches based on Kalman filtering algorithm. Unlike traditional regression analysis, this model is based on state equation. The model design and parameter identification method are discussed in details. An example of actual coal production is given out and analyzed with this method. The calculation results show that the average prediction error rate of this model is less compared with traditional linear regression and exponential one. Regression parameters such as H and C in this model can be explained with practical safety management factors.